The Natural Resources Conservation Service will release its first snowpack forecast of the year today, and initial numbers indicate that "things look pretty good so far," said Dan Murray, the federal agency's water supply specialist in Albuquerque.

The volume of runoff water, which helps supply irrigation and drinking water to communities along the Rio Grande, should be about 70 percent of normal from March to July, Murray said.

Normal is about 573,000 acre feet, and 70 percent of that is 400,000 acre feet. Last year, the area only got about 40 percent of the yearly average. An acre foot of water is what it would take to cover an acre of land with 12 inches of water.

The optimistic forecast is good news for farmers in the region and for communities that depend on the Rio Grande for drinking water. The forecast will also determine how much river water the U.S. government will share with Mexico under an international treaty.

Several communities in New Mexico share the Rio Grande with El Paso, and how much each will get depends on the total surface water available.

"Northern New Mexico and Colorado is where we get our water from," said Ramon Tirres Jr., a Lower Valley farmer of 30 years who grows Pima cotton and winter wheat. "Our normal allotment of water is supposed to be 4 feet. Last year, I got 16 inches from the initial release, but that was from both river water and water from the irrigation district wells. I got a total of 33 inches for the year (in 2004)," he said.

"The driest I've seen it was when we got 6 inches in the mid-1970s. For the crops to do well, we need to have a good 10 to 12 inches for the first irrigation. The snowpack report helps us to plan for our year's crops," Tirres said.

Farmers get their first water releases in mid-March. Tirres said the river water is better for the soil and for pecan trees than "the salty water we've been given from the irrigation wells."

Murray said "the snowpack in southern Colorado is critical for Elephant Butte Reservoir, and although it's still early in the season, we seem to be ahead of schedule."

Snowpack is the water in snow, measured in inches, which together with rainfall and stream flows contribute to the expected surface water supply for the region. Snow accounts for 75 percent to 85 percent of New Mexico's surface water, and snow in Colorado and New Mexico have a direct impact on El Paso's border region.

Dry winds also could affect ultimate snowpack conditions, and that's a part of the weather that's hard to predict, Murray said.

Jesus Reyes, general manager of El Paso County Water Improvement District No. 1, and Hector Gonzalez, strategic business manager of El Paso Water Utilities, agreed that snowpack information is vital to the region.

"From what I've heard, it's looking very positive at this point. Last year, we only received about 40 percent of what we normally get from the snow," Reyes said. "I understand the lake level (at Elephant Butte-Caballo) increased by 6 to 7 feet recently, and hopefully that will continue."

Because of drought conditions and other factors, in 2002 El Paso relied on the Rio Grande for 50 percent of its drinking water, Gonzalez said. The rest came from groundwater.

"Last year, that went down to 34 percent," he said, in part because of the production of 12 new water wells the utility drilled mainly in the Lower Valley. "We do not foresee any water restrictions this year. Our capacity is greater than our demand, regardless of the snowpack forecast."

Last year, the city demand for water was 156 million gallons per day and capacity was 293 million gallons per day, Gonzalez said. "We do monitor the (snowpack) report information, but our water supply is good."

That also means the utility will not be imposing severe watering restrictions this year, Gonzalez added.

The melted snow that trickles down each year from the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico means the difference between a year of drought or a year of plenty for people in the El Paso border region who rely on the Rio Grande, officials said.

Murray said people must not forget that the region is a desert, and communities should continue to conserve as much water as possible.

El Paso and the surrounding region received more rainfall than usual in 2004 (12.20 inches for El Paso) and the extra precipitation will help to recharge groundwater aquifers. The annual average rainfall in El Paso is 9.43 inches.

"We also got some fall rainfall, and that's good for the runoff because when the ground freezes that helps the precipitation to flow better," Murray said. "When the ground is dry, the soil absorbs a lot of the moisture, and we get a lot less runoff."

A weak El Niño has brought in moisture to the Southwestern states, which have experienced drought for several years now. Murray also said it's too soon to tell whether the region is coming out of a drought spell, but at least for this year, the outlook is good.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes an "El Niño" as "a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe," which typically arrives around Christmas.

"We'll get a better idea of the drought trend with time," Murray said.

Diana Washington Valdez may be reached at dvaldez@elpasotimes.com; 546-6140.